Symposium: March 26-28, 2007

Book your room online
(use "Risk Symposium 2007" for conference rate)

Symposium Agenda

Organized by:

Co-Organizers

Keynote Speaker :

Mr. Robert B. Stephan
Assistant Secretary of Infrastructure Protection
Department of Homeland Security

Plenary Speakers :

Dr. Vicki Bier
Director, Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis
Professor, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
University of Wisconsin-Madison, WI

Dr. James Jay Carafano
Senior Research Fellow, Defense and Homeland Security
The Heritage Foundation

Dr. Gary LaFree
Director, the National Center for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)
Professor, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice
University of Maryland

Dr. Glenn Shafer
Board of Governors Professor
Rutgers University, Newark, NJ

Risk Symposium 2006 Presentations Download

8:00 AM - 8:30 AM

Opening Remarks

8:30 AM - 9:15 AM

Welcome - Dr. J. Douglas Beason – Associate Director, Threat Reduction Directorate, Los Alamos National Laboratory - BALLROOM

9:30 AM - 10:30 AM

Plenary Talk - Risk Assessment at Risk: Washington Ways and the Future of Rational-Based Planning for Security and Disaster Response
Dr. James Jay Carafano, Assistant Director, Kathryn and Shelby Collom Davis Institute for International Studies, and Senior Research Fellow, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation - BALLROOM

10:30 AM - 11:30 AM

Networking/Posters/Demonstrations - MEZZANINE

11:30 AM - 12:30 PM

Lunch  - LA TERRAZA

12:30 PM - 2:00 PM

Breakout 1: Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) Session - SANTA FE ROOM

Title:

Overview of CREATE Charter, Organization and Results

Presenting Author:

Detlof Von Winterfeldt, CREATE/University of Southern California

Title:

Applying Optimal Capital Allocation Methods to Homeland Security Resources: A Case Study of California’s Allocation of the Buffer Zone Protection Program Grants

Presenting Author:

Henry Willis, CREATE/RAND

Title:

Estimating Likelihood of Terrorist Attacks by Modeling Terrorist Beliefs and Motivations

Presenting Author:

Richard John, CREATE/University of Southern California

Breakout 2: Risk Assessment and Risk Management - NEW MEXICO ROOM

Title:

Modeling of Security Considerations in the Transportation of Hazardous Materials

Presenting Author:

Rajan Batta and Mark Karwan, SUNY Buffalo

Title:

Valuating Strategic Preparedness to Manage Risks of Natural and Man-Made Disasters to Interconnected Economic Systems

Presenting Author:

Kenneth G. Crowther, University of Virginia

Title:

Risk Management as a Congestive Network Problem for an Agent Collective

Presenting Author:

Gary G. Nelson, Homeland Security Institute

Breakout 3: Coast and Border Security - CORONADO ROOM

Title:

Risk Reduction Return on Investment - How the Coast Guard Optimizes Mission Execution

Presenting Author:

LCDR Dave Cooper, United States Coast Guard

Title:

Strategic Risk Assessment Process for Maritime Homeland Security

Presenting Author:

LCDR Jim Moran, United States Coast Guard

2:15 PM - 3:45 PM

Breakout 4: National Center for Food Protection and Defense (NCFPD) Session - SANTA FE ROOM

Title:

Risk Communication as an Intervention/Mitigation Strategy

Presenting Author:

Tim Sellnow, North Dakota State University

Title:

Risk Assessment and Preparation:  A Private Sector Response

Presenting Author:

Richard Ryan and Mark Cheviron, Archer Daniels Midland Company

Title:

Approaches to Improving Decision Support in Multi-Disciplinary Problem Domains

Presenting Author:

Montiago Labute, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Breakout 5: Adversary Modeling - NEW MEXICO ROOM

Title:

Development of Quantitative Utility Models for Adversary Intent Using Approximate Reasoning

Presenting Author:

Stephen W. Eisenhawer, Logic Evolved Technologies

Title:

On the Role of Adversary Intent Models in Assessing Terrorist Risk: A Numerical Study

Presenting Author:

Brian P. Key, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Title:

A Mathematical Risk-Based Approach to Characterizing Deterrence

Presenting Author:

Douglas A. Samuelson, Homeland Security Institute

Breakout 6: Mathematical Analysis and Modeling - CORONADO ROOM

Title:

Design and Analysis of Experiments Applied to Critical Infrastructure Simulation

Presenting Author:

Leslie M. Moore, Los Alamos National Laboratory   

Title:

The Weighted Targeted Consensus Measure as an Indicator of Risk Assessment

Presenting Author:

Bill Tastle, Ithaca College

Title:

Flexibility Theory as a Transdisciplinary Science

Presenting Author:

Kurtay Ogunc, University of Texas – Dallas

4:15 PM - 5:00 PM

Keynote: The Honorable Robert B. Stephan, Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure Protection, Department of Homeland Security  -BALLROOM

5:30 PM - 7:00 PM

Reception

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

7:30 AM - 8:00 AM 

Breakfast

8:00 AM - 8:45 AM

Plenary Talk - Defensive Forecasting : Method of Sequential Probability Prediction Based on Game-theoretic Probability Framework
Dr. Glenn Shafer, Board of Governors Professor, Rutgers University - BALLROOM

8:55 AM - 10:25 AM

Breakout 7: National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Session - NEW MEXICO ROOM

Title:

The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center: A New Interagency Infrastructure Protection 'Center of Gravity'

Presenting Author:

Colonel Merrick E Krause, USAF, ret., Counselor to Assistant Secretary, Infrastructure Protection & Program Manager, National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center

Title:

Causal Models and Probabilistic Techniques for Infrastructure Risk Assessment

Presenting Author:

Daniel J. Pless, Sandia National Laboratories

Title:

Approaches to Improving Decision Support in Multi-Disciplinary Problem Domains

Presenting Author:

John Ambrosiano, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Breakout 8: Emergency Response and Consequence Management - SANTA FE ROOM

Title:

Civil Support Analytic Baseline Study

Presenting Author:

Lt Col Maureen E Borgia, OSD/PA&E/SAC

Title:

Public Response to a Terrorist Strike: Shifting from a Static to Dynamic Analysis of Risk-Related Behaviors

Presenting Author:

William Burns, CSUSM/CREATE

Title:

Chemical-Biological Disaster Response from a Systems Perspective

Presenting Author:

Edward Boyle, Air Force Research Laboratory

Breakout 9: Vulnerability Analysis/Risk Analysis - CORONADO ROOM

Title:

Assessing Vulnerability Due to Interdependencies among Critical Infrastructure Systems

Presenting Author:

Earl E. Lee II, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Title:

Development of Terrorist Attack Scenarios Against The Air Transportation System

Presenting Author:

M. Sorokach, NASA-Langley

Title:

An Approach to Integrating Perils Dependencies in Estimating Risk: Identification of Research Needs

Presenting Author:

Jean Savy, Risk Management Solutions

10:25 AM - 10:35 AM

Break

10:35 AM - 11:45 AM

Panel Discussion - BALLROOM
Dr. Vicki Bier, Director, Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis and Professor, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Dr. James Carafano, Assistant Director, Kathryn and Shelby Collom Davis Institute for International Studies, and Senior Research Fellow, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Ms. Tina Gabbrielli, Acting Director, Risk Management and Analysis Office, Department of Homeland Security
Mr. Shaun Kennedy, Associate Director, National Center for Food Protection and Defense (NCFPD)
Dr. Gary LaFree, Director, Center for Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) and Professor, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland
Dr. Glenn Shafer, Board of Governors Professor, Rutgers University

11:45 PM - 12:45 PM

Lunch - LA TERRAZA

12:45 PM - 1:40 PM

Plenary Talk - The Social Context of Terrorism:  Case Studies from Turkey and Northern Ireland
Dr. Gary LaFree, Director, Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) and Professor, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland - BALLROOM

1:50 PM - 2:20 PM

Special Talk - Risk Management and Analysis Office: An Overview
Ms. Tina Gabbrielli, Acting Director, Risk Management and Analysis Office, DHS - BALLROOM

2:20 PM - 2:30 PM

Break

2:30 PM - 4:00 PM

Breakout 10: National Center for Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) Session - SANTA FE ROOM

Title:

Global Terrorism Trajectories

Presenting Author:

Gary LaFree, START/University of Maryland

Title:

Determining the Terrorist Threat: The Neglected Leg of Risk Assessment

Presenting Author:

Gary Ackerman, START/University of Maryland

Title:

Mechanisms and Measures of Political Activism and Radicalism

Presenting Author:

Sophia Moskalenko, START/Bryn Mawr College

Breakout 11: Software Tools - CORONADO ROOM

Title:

Simulation and Optimization as Effective Risk Analysis Tools

Presenting Author:

Fred Ciochetto, Decisioneering

Title:

Pathways and Assessment Mapping Tool for Risk Analysis

Presenting Author:

Mary Ann Bjornsen, USDA/APHIS/CEAH

Title:

A Software Framework for Applying Diverse Reasoning Methods in Risk Analysis

Presenting Author:

John Ambrosiano and Randy Roberts, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Breakout 12: Decision Support Systems and Simulation - NEW MEXICO ROOM

Title:

Multivariate Investment Decision Support Tool – MIDST

Presenting Author:

Frank Gilfeather, University of New Mexico

Title:

Reliability Based Design Optimization for the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System

Presenting Author:

Mark McDonald, Vanderbilt University

Title:

Mitigating Disruptions in Supply Chain

Presenting Author:

Tom Schmitt, University of Washington

4:15 PM - 5:45 PM

Breakout 13: Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System - NEW MEXICO ROOM

Title:

An Overview of the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System

Presenting Author:

Dennis Powell, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Title:

Application of Interdependency Modeling to Infrastructure Risk Assessment

Presenting Author:

Sharon Deland and Dan Pless, Sandia National Laboratories

Title:

Analysis of an Accidental Release of Toxic Industrial Chemical in an Urban Setting

Presenting Author:

Michael Samsa, Argonne National Laboratory
Dennis Powell, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Title:

Information Sharing with CI/KR Owners and Operators

Presenting Author:

Evan Wolff, DHS

Breakout 14: Risk and Vulnerability Analysis - SANTA FE ROOM

Title:

Applying Uncertainty Analysis to the Risks of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Presenting Author:

Vicki Bier, University of Wisconsin-Madison 

Title:

Mining Vulnerability Assessment Data to Support CI/KR Risk Analysis

Presenting Author:

Melanie Tompkins, Argonne National Laboratory

Title:

Homeland Infrastructure Foundation Level Database (HIFLD) Working Group and Homeland Security Infrastructure (HSIP) Gold Data

Presenting Author:

Justin Sherin, HIFLD Support Staff Lead from Booz  Allen Hamilton

Breakout 15: Qualitative Risk Assessment - CORONADO ROOM

Title:

Linguistic Ranking of Terrorist Scenarios Using Belief and Approximate Reasoning

Presenting Author:

John Darby, Sandia National Laboratories

Title:

On the Linguistic Presentation of Fused Information for Human Comprehension

Presenting Author:

Ronald R. Yager, Machine Intelligence Institute, Iona College, NY

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

7:30 AM - 8:00 AM

Breakfast

8:00 AM - 8:50 AM

Plenary Talk - Optimal Resource Allocation for Defense of Multiple Targets
Dr. Vicki Bier, Director, Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis and Professor, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison - BALLROOM

9:00 AM - 10:30 AM

Breakout 16: Risk Assessment Applications - SANTA FE ROOM

Title:

Development, Application, and Implementation of RAMCAP to Characterize Nuclear Power Plant Risk from Terrorism

Presenting Author:

Grant Teagarden, Erin Engineering

Title:

Modeling the Risk and Life Cycle Cost of Protecting U.S Commercial Aircraft

Presenting Author:

Kirk Hoy and Kirt Willstatter, Summit Engineering Group

Breakout 17: Modeling Risks under Uncertainty - NEW MEXICO ROOM

Title:

Modeling Secrecy and Deception in Homeland Security Resource Allocation

Presenting Author:

Jun Zhuang and Vicki Bier, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Title:

Critical Facility Protection Optimization Under Uncertainty for Single and Multiple Adversary Teams

Presenting Author:

Patrick Hester, Vanderbilt University  

Title:

Analysis of Defensive Architectures to Reduce Terrorist Risk Using Logic Gate Trees

Presenting Author:

S. Eisenhawer, Logic Evolved Technologies

Title:

Generalized Least Risk Routing with Applications to Counterterrorism

Presenting Author:

Harry R Blacksten, Homeland Security Institute  

Title:

Requirements for Developing a Full Risk Analysis Method for Fire Protection Engineering

Presenting Author:

Paul A. Reneke, Building and Fire Research Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology

Breakout 19: Agent-Based Modeling - SANTA FE ROOM

Title:

CrowdSim: An Agent-based Framework for Simulating Large-crowd Dynamics

Presenting Author:

R. Roberts and T. Cleland , Los Alamos National Laboratory

Title:

Distributed risk minimization in teams with incomplete information

Presenting Author:

D. Georgiev