Risk Symposium 2006
Risk Analysis for Homeland Security and Defense: Theory and Application.
Date: 20-22 MAR 2006, 3 days
Location: The Hilton – Santa Fe, New Mexico
Presentations
Monday –March 20, 2006
8:00 am – 8:30 am Welcome – Mesa Ballroom
8:30 am – 9:30 am Keynote – Mesa Ballroom: Tom Dinanno -
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Office of Infrastructure Protection, DHS
9:30 am – 10:30 am Risk Analysis in Los Alamos National Laboratory – Mesa Ballroom: Venkateswara R. Dasari - Decision Applications Division Leader, LANL
11:00 am – 12:30 pm Technical Break-out Sessions
Break-out 1: Risk Assessment/Analysis I – Mesa Ballroom A
Title: Risk Analysis for Information Operation
Presenting Author: Bud Whiteman, Booz Allen Hamilton
Title: Neural Networks: A Data Mining and Risk Assessment Tool
Presenting Author: Darrell W. Donahue, University of Maine
Title: The Role of Concept of Operations Studies in Assessing Terrorist Risk
Presenting Author: John Foggia, National Institute of Aerospace
Break-out 2: Infrastructure Asset Ranking and Vulnerability Analysis – Mesa Ballroom B
Title: Compact Reporting of Prioritized Physical Assets: "Playbooks"
Presenting Author: Loren Tool, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: Ranking Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due To Random Failures And Malevolent Acts
Presenting Author: George Apostolakis, MIT
Title: Identifying Critical Elements in Power Networks
Presenting Author: David Robinson, Sandia National Laboratory
Break-out 3: Linguistic and Approximated Reasoning for Risk Analysis – Mesa Ballroom C
Title: Adversary/Defender Model of Risk of Terrorist Acts using Belief
Presenting Author: John Darby, Sandia National Laboratory
Title: A Comparison of Risk Estimates Using Different Information Measures
Presenting Author: Gregory Chavez, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: Enabling Human Centered Risk and Decision Modeling
Presenting Author: Ronald R. Yager, IONA
12:30 pm – 2:00 pm Working Lunch (Pinon Grill)
2:00 pm – 3:00 pm Plenary – Mesa Ballroom: Yacov Y. Haimes - Director, Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia
3:15 pm – 4:45 pm Technical Break-out Sessions
Break-out 4: Coast and Border Security – Mesa Ballroom A
Title: Coast Guard Assessment and Management Efforts for Maritime Terror Risk
Presenting Author: James Moran, USCG Headquarters
Title: Trade-Off Analysis For Port-Security
Presenting Author: Junko Sekine, George Washing University
Title: A Systems-Based Risk Management Approach for Border Security
Presenting Author: Niyazi Onur Bakir, CREATE
Break-out 5: Risk-based Resource Allocation – Mesa Ballroom B
Title: Optimization Models for Risk Reduction Resource Allocation
Presenting Author: Theodore S Glickman, George Washington University
Title: Prioritization via Stochastic Optimization
Presenting Author: David Morton, UT - Austin
Title: Application Of Risk Management To The State & Local Communities
Presenting Author: Thomas Robison, Department of Homeland Security
Break-out 6: Game Theory in Risk Assessment and Reduction – Mesa Ballroom C
Title: Balancing Terrorism and Natural Disasters - Defensive strategy with Endogenous Attacker Effort
Presenting Author: Jun Zhuang, UW - Madison
Title: Network Design Under Varying Interdiction Behavior
Presenting Author: J. Cole Smith, University of Florida
Title: A Critical Assessment of the Use of Game Theory in Terrorist Risk Assessment
Presenting Author: Seth D. Guikema, Texax AM University
6:00 pm – 8:00 pm Risk Symposium Banquet – Ortiz Ballroom
Banquet Speaker: Nozer D. Singpurwalla -
Institute Director, Professor of Statistics, The George Washington University
Tuesday – March 21, 2006
8:00 am – 9:00 am Plenary – Mesa Ballroom - David Weinburg - Senior Technical Advisor, Risk Management Division, Office of Infrastructure Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
9:15 am – 10:45 am Technical Break-out Sessions
Break-out 7: Risk Assessment/Analysis II – Mesa Ballroom A
Title: How to Identify, Quantify, and Reduce Risk through Simulation and Optimization
Presenting Author: Fred Ciochetto, Decisioneering
Title: Catastrophe Risk Modeling Applications to Homeland Security and Defense
Presenting Author: Jack Seaquist, Air Worldwide Corporation
Title: Analysis of Accident Risks in Narrow Waterways: The Case of Istanbul Channel
Presenting Author: Tayfur Altiok, Rutgers University
Break-out 8: Risk Analysis in Energy and Finance Sector – Mesa Ballroom B
Title: Analyzing Vulnerabilities in the Oil and Gas Sector from Incident Data
Presenting Author: Carlos Restrepo, New York University
Title: An Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks
Presenting Author: Phillip C. Beccue, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum
Title: A Framework for Risk Management in Supply Chains
Presenting Author: Romesh Saigal, University of Michigan
Break-out 9: Decision Models in Risk Reduction – Mesa Ballroom C
Title: Dynamic Risk Management of Network-Centric Systems
Presenting Author: Paul West, United States Military Academy
Title: Conventional Risk-Based Decision Methods and the Question of Their Adaptability to Homeland Defense
Presenting Author: Stephen D. Unwin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Title: Stochastic Server Location and Related Stochastic Network Design Problems
Presenting Author: Suvrajeet Sen, University of Arizona
11:00 am – 12:30 pm Technical Break-out Sessions
Break-out 10: Emergency Response and Social Simulation – Mesa Ballroom A
Title: End-To-End Decision Support Through Targeted Notification
Presenting Author: Kevin R. Petty, NCAR
Title: Social Simulation for Operational Risk Assessment
Presenting Author: Edward P. MacKerrow, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: Voluntary contributions to reduce expected public losses
Presenting Author: Claudia Keser, IBM
Break-out 11: Statistical Methods – Mesa Ballroom B
Title: Statistical Design of Experiments for Understanding Factor Importance in Large Decision Trees
Presenting Author: Christine Anderson-Cook, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: New Priors for Complex System Reliabilities and Trends
Presenting Author: Scott Vander Wiel, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: Kernel Methods for Prediction of Complex Systems
Presenting Author: Theodore B. Trafalis, University of Oklahoma
Break-out 12: Social/Epidemic Model – Mesa Ballroom C
Title: Public Response to a Terrorist Strike: A System Dynamics Model and Empirical Results
Presenting Author: Bill Burns, California State University SM
Title: Pest risk analysis and s urveillance for select agents affecting plants in urban, nursery, and field agricultural situations.
Presenting Author: Brown, L.G, DOA
Title: Applying Risk And Uncertainty Analysis To Foot-And-Mouth Disease (FMD) Outbreak Management
Presenting Author: Lorna Zach, UW – Madison
Title: Best Practices In Risk And Crisis Communication
Presenting Author: Steven Venette, National Center for Food Protection and Defense
12:30 pm – 2:00 pm Working Lunch (Pinon Grill)
2:00 pm – 3:00 pm Plenary – Mesa Ballroom - Detlof von Winterfeldt - Director, CREATE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
3:30 pm – 4:30 pm Technical Break-out Sessions
Break-out 13: Uncertainty Quantification and Quality Control in Complex Process – Mesa Ballroom A
Title: Quantifying Modeling Uncertainty in the Dynamic Response of a Threaded Assembly Joint
Presenting Author: Jonathan Lucero, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: Expressions Of Total Uncertainty In Engineering Problems Involving Sparse And Uncertain Information
Presenting Author: Timothy Ross, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: On Optimality of One-Bug-Look-Ahead Policies for a Software Reliability Model
Presenting Author: Xiaoyue Jiang , Louisiana State University
Break-out 14: Threat Assessment – Mesa Ballroom B
Title: Threat Shifting: A Key Issue in Terrorism Risk Analysis
Presenting Author: Bryan W. Roberts, DHS
Title: How to Think About When Terrorism Risk is Tolerable
Presenting Author: Henry H. Willis, Rand
Break-out 15: Infrastructure Risk Assessment/Protection – Mesa Ballroom C
Title: Using Numerical Weather Prediction Model Outputs to Estimate Risks to Critical Infrastructure from Extreme Weather
Presenting Author:Sam Flaim , Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: Bilevel And Trilevel Models For Defending Critical Infrastructure: Risk Analysis Without The Risk.
Presenting Author: Kevin Wood, NPS
Title: Local and Global Risk-based Decision Models for Facility and Infrastructure Protection Networks
Presenting Author: Sankaran Mahadevan, Vanderbilt University
Wednesday – March 22, 2006
8:30 am – 10:00 am Technical Break-out Sessions
Break-out 16: Sensor-based models – Mesa Ballroom A
Title: Calculating Urban-Scale Climate Analyses Of Street-Level Winds, For Risk Analysis And Defining Optimal Configuration Of CBR Sensor Networks
Presenting Author: Scott Swerdlin, NCAR
Title: Decision Support for Port-of-Entry Container Inspection
Presenting Author: Endre Boros, Rutgers University
Title: Formulation and Optimization of Robust Sensor Placement Problems for Contaminant Warning System Design
Presenting Author: Jean-Paul Watson, SNL
Break-out 17: Knowledge Extraction/Information Fusion – Mesa Ballroom B
Title: Aggregating Disparate Forecasts of Probability: A Scalable Approach
Presenting Author: Joel B. Predd, Princeton
Title: Methods and Architectures for Hybrid-inference Risk Analysis and Decision Models
Presenting Author: John Ambrosiano, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Title: Finding Paths in Social Networks
Presenting Author: Yiming Yao, LLNL
Break-out 18: Risk-based Policy Decision – Mesa Ballroom C
Title: A Risk-Managing Enterprise as a Complex Adaptive System
Presenting Author: Gary G. Nelson, Homeland Security Institute
Title: Risk and Decision-Making in Homeland Security
Presenting Author: Robert G. Ross, Department of Homeland Security
Title: An Attention Allocation Bidding Process to Improve Organizational Risk Assessment
Presenting Author: Douglas A. Samuelson, Homeland Security Institute
10:30 am – 12:30 pm Panel Discussion – Mesa Ballroom
Panel Members
David Weinburg, DHS
Captain Sam Neil, US Coast Guard
Lieutenant Colonel Barry Ezell, US Army
Lieutenant Colonel David Denhard, US Air Force
Theodore Glickman, George Washington University
Douglas Samuelson, Homeland Security Institute
Wiley Davidson, Center for Homeland Security, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Closing Remarks