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Risk Symposium 2008
Effective Risk Communication: Tools, Theory and Applications
March 11-13 2008, La Fonda on the Plaza, Santa Fe, New Mexico

Plenary Talks

Dr. Scott Breor - Office of Risk Management and Analysis

Mr. Jeff Stehm - Risks and Risk Communication in Payment and Settlement Systems

Mr. Brandon Wales - Customer Centric Decision Support

Dr. Allen Brown - Averting Risk in the Therapy Development Pipeline

Tuesday           (3/11/2008)      9:00-10:30       Breakout Session

Session Title:  Risk & Homeland Security	Session Title: Managing Uncertainty &                        Risk in Nuclear Forensics
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
1. Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling For Benefit-Cost Analysis of Homeland Security Regulations Henry Willis, Tom LaTourrette RAND Corporation 2. Risk Communication in Support of Energy, Transportation and Water Services Carlos E. Restrepo, Rae Zimmerman, Jeffrey S. Simonoff New York University 3. ARMOR Protection:  A Game Theoretic Approach for Randomized Patrolling and Monitoring at the Los Angeles International Airport Milind Tambe1, Fernando Ordóñez1, Sarit Kraus2, Erroll Southers3, James Pita1, Manish Jain1, Christopher Portway1, Craig Western1, Praveen Paruchuri4 1University of Southern California 2Bar-llan University 3Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) 4Intelligent Automation, Inc.	4. Managing Uncertainty and Risk in the National Technical Nuclear Forensics Program Open Session with the following guest speakers Hans Widmer1, Yves Dardenne2, Steven Goldberg3 1Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory 2Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 3New Brunswick Laboratory

Tuesday           (3/11/2008)      10:45-12:15     Breakout Session

Session Title:  Risk Management &                         Response	Session Title: Uncertainty Quantification                        & Optimization
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
5. Infrastructure, Social Order, and the Police Response to Hurricane Katrina Benjamin Sims Los Alamos National Laboratory 6. Researching Risk and Emergency Communication for Multiple Publics Donna J. Kain, Catherine F. Smith East Carolina University 7. Risk-based Identity Management for Flexible Emergency Response Plans Kenneth G. Crowther University of Virginia	8. Approaches to Risk in Optimization Under uncertainty Terry Rockafellar University of Florida/University of Washington 9. The Quantification of Inference Uncertainty in the Absence of Physical Tests T. Ross1, J. Booker1, J. Langenbruner2, F. Hemez2 1University of New Mexico 2Los Alamos National Laboratory 10. Approximate Reasoning Models Applied to Communication of Risk for Parties in Conflict John Ambrosiano Los Alamos National Laboratory

Tuesday           (3/11/2008)      2:30-4:00         Breakout Session

Session Title: Network Modeling &                        Interdiction	Session Title: Decision Support and Risk                       Minimization
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
11. Interdiction Modeling for Smuggled Nuclear Material N. Dimitrov, M.A. Gonzalez, D.P. Michalopoulos, D.P. Morton, M. Nehme, E. Popova, E. Schneider and G. Thoreson University of Texas at Austin 12. Hazard distribution and risk assessment in the network systems Eugenijus Uspuras, Juozas Augutis Laboratory of Nuclear Installation Safety Lithuanian Energy Institute 13. On the Use of Approximate Reasoning Models for Incorporating Diverse Variables in Modeling Vaguely Understood Systems George Tompkins, Sunil Donald, Brian Key, Eleanor Dixon, Gregory Chavez, Dmitry Kesselman Los Alamos National Laboratory	14. Consistent Decision Making for Portfolio Selection Problems Sundeep Samson, James A Reneke Clemson University 15. Risk Analysis Investment Decision Support Frank Gilfeather University of New Mexico 16. Minimizing Security Risk While Maximizing Accessibility of Information Timothy T. Elkins Transformation Chair, United States Military Academy,  West Point, NY

Wednesday       (3/12/2008)     9:00-10:30       Breakout Session:

Session Title: Modeling & Resource                        Allocation	Session Title: Financial Systems & Energy                       Modeling
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
17. All Along the Watchtower: Using Risk Analysis to Evaluate Potential Solutions to Border Surveillance Cameron MacKenzie1, Henry Willis2 1Stanford University 2RAND Corporation 18. Robust Portfolio Methods for Risk-Based Counterterrorism Resource Allocation Don N. Kleinmuntz Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE)    University of Southern California 19. Random Utility Modeling for the Rational Terrorist Richard S. John, Heather Rosoff Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of              Terrorism Events (CREATE) University of Southern California	20. Risk and Concentration in Payment and Securities Settlement Systems David C. Mills, Jr., Travis D. Nesmith Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 21. Financial System: Complexity, Interdependencies, and Disruptions Alexander Outkin, Silvio Flaim, Andy Seirp, Julia Gavrilov Los Alamos National Laboratory 22. Energy Modeling Using FAIR Mark McNulty University of Wyoming

Wednesday       (3/12/2008)     10:45-12:15     Breakout Session

Session Title:  Probability Risk Analysis	Session Title: Uncertainty Quantification
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
23. Estimating WMD Terrorism Attack Probabilities: Applications in Department of Homeland Security Risk Analyses Steve P. Bennett Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security 24. Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk Barry Charles Ezell1, Detlof von Winterfieldand2, Steve P. Bennett3 1Deputy, Studies & Analysis Division    CDAD, ARCIC 2Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE)    University of Southern California 3 Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security 25. Identification and Risk Ranking of Improvised Nuclear Device Attack Scenarios David Zerkle, Brian Key, Danny Shevitz Los Alamos National Laboratory	26. Simulation and Optimization as Effective Risk Analysis Tools   Fred Ciochetto ORACLE Corporation 27. On Fusing Linguistic and Assignment Uncertainty into Belief and Plausibility Measures Gregory Chavez Los Alamos National Laboratory 28. Analyzing Uncertainty in Expert Opinions for Decision Making Under Uncertainty Mark McDonald, Patrick Hester, Sankaran Mahadevan Vanderbilt University

Wednesday       (3/12/2008)     2:30-4:00         Breakout Session

Session Title: Food and Animal Defense	Session Title: Advanced Modeling for Risk &                       Capabilities
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
29. Overview of Risk Analysis Research at the National Center for Foreign Animal and Zoonotic Diseases (FAZD) Defense Neville Clarke1, Michael Orosz2 1Foreign Animal and Zoonotic Diseases (FAZD) Defense Center    Texas A&M University 2University of Southern California 30. A Semi-Quantitative Risk Methodology for Food Defense Derived from the Carver Plus Shock Model John Ambrosiano Los Alamos National Laboratory	31. The Role of Risk Analysis in the Development of Advanced Systems S. W. Eisenhawer, T. F. Bott, J. R. Foggia Logic Evolved Technologies, Inc 32. Use of Combining High Fidelity Models with Fast Running Engineering Tools for Assessing Uncertainties in Complex Homeland Security Scenarios Steve Whitehouse, John-Paul Shebalin Applied Research Associates 33. 64th Civil Team Capabilities Jeffery Olichwier Deputy Commander, 64th Civil Support Team

Wednesday       (3/12/2008)     4:15-5:15         Breakout Session

Session Title: Risk Analysis for Key                       Infrastructure	Session Title: Risk Communication
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
34. A Common Risk Model for CIKR Victor A. Utgoff1, James Morgeson1, Susan Smith2 1Institute for Defense Analyses 2Infrastructure Protection, Department of Homeland Security 35. Risk Management Analysis Program (RMAP) for Commercial Aviation Security Matthew McKean U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA)	36. A Review of Basic Concepts and Definitions for Program and Project Risk Analysis John P. Kindinger Los Alamos National Laboratory 37. Variations on Methodologies Presenting Risk Results for Construction and Experimental Projects Bonnie Koch1, Pat Medina1, Tony Villegas2 1Los Alamos National Laboratory 2SAIC

Thursday           (3/13/2008)     9:00-10:30       Breakout Session

Session Title: Critical Infrastructure                        Modeling & Protection	Session Title: Issues in Risk Assessment
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
38. Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty Analysis Dennis Powell1, Jeanne Fair1, Rene LeClaire1, Lori Dauelsberg1, Leslie Moore1, Brian Bush1, Perry Klare1, Sharon Deland2, Michael Wilson2, Adam Turk2, Gary Hirsch2, Michael Samsa3, John Molburg3 1Los Alamos National Laboratory 2Sandia National Laboratory 3Argonne National Laboratory 39. Learning Environment Simulator for First Responders Rene J. LeClaire1, Gary B. Hirsch2, Alisa Bandlow2 1Los Alamos National Laboratory 2Sandia National Laboratory 40. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in CIPDSS Lori Dauelsberg Los Alamos National Laboratory	41. Area-wide risk communication: Japan case - Simulation and discussion on environmental risks of chemical substances Takehiko Murayama1, Masaru Kitano2, Jun Sekizawa3 1Waseda University 2Meiji University 3Tokushima University 42. The Challenges of Implementing a Modeling Tool in the Intelligence Community Jonathan Lucero Sandia National Laboratory 43. Policy Analysis and Design Under Uncertainty for Systems-of-Systems Howard D. McInvale, Mark McDonald, Sankaran Mahadevan Vanderbilt University

Thursday           (3/13/2008)     10:45-12:15     Breakout Session

Session Title: Communicating Risk	Session Title: Risk Modeling
Location: New Mexico Room	Location: Santa Fe Room
44. Best Practices for Communicating Risk and Crisis Messages to the Media: Overcoming the Constraints of Message Filtering Steven J. Venette1, Timothy L. Sellnow2 1University of Southern Mississippi 2University of Kentucky 45. A Socio-technical Approach to Assessing Infrastructure Criticality in Telecommunications Networks Stephan Eidenbenz, Sunil Thulasidasa, Leticia Cuellar Los Alamos National Laboratory	46. Application of principles of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) to software and hardware Reliability Chandra S. Putcha1, Prince Kalia2, Frank Pizzano3, Gordon Hoskins3, Coy Newton3, Kunal J. Kamdar1 1California State University 2NASA Goddard Space Center 3Hernandez Engineer Inc. 47. Reliability-Based Optimal Control of Dynamic Systems- Applications to Modeling for Homeland Security Mark McDonald, Sankaran Mahadevan Vanderbilt University